Stefan V?gele, Dirk Rübbelke, Philip Mayer, Wilhelm Kuckshinrichs

碳捕獲和封存技術(shù)（CCS）通常被認(rèn)為是一種較有前景的緩解全球變暖方法。然而，CCS目前正在失去政治上的支持。其主要原因在于公眾對(duì)于該技術(shù)的接受度普遍較低。而這主要與CCS造成的環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及該技術(shù)可能對(duì)可再生能源技術(shù)發(fā)展造成的不利影響有關(guān)。事實(shí)上，CCS的影響是多維度的。因此，要想對(duì)此技術(shù)進(jìn)行充分評(píng)估，應(yīng)盡可能全面地考慮到該技術(shù)的所有方面。由于利益相關(guān)者不僅僅看重它的可持續(xù)性，因此還必須制定更加嚴(yán)苛的指標(biāo)。本文通過(guò)基于不同情景的多標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分析，調(diào)查了德國(guó)在應(yīng)用CCS后的結(jié)果，這可以作為可再生能源使用擴(kuò)展的替代方案。在調(diào)查過(guò)程中，我們采用了一套包括可持續(xù)因素在內(nèi)的指標(biāo)。結(jié)果表明，造成德國(guó)電力行業(yè)CCS未來(lái)變得蕭條的因素是多種多樣的。

Fig. 1. Perception of technologies

Fig. 2 Impact of CCS, renewable energy, energy storage and energy efficiency from the point of view of energy leaders. 

Highlights

?     Carbon capture and storage being regarded as option to mitigate climate change loses support

?     Sustainability indicators are not the only ones stakeholders are interested in.

?     Even factors distinct from sustainably indicators shows a gloomy future for CCS

?     A more intensive use of renewables will be more beneficial from an economic and social point of view.

Abstract

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is frequently regarded as a promising approach to mitigate global warming. Yet, by and by CCS is losing political support. The key reason for that is largely seen in the lack of public acceptance for this technology. The absence of public acceptance, in turn, is in particular due to the environmental risks ascribed to CCS and the adverse effects this technology may create with respect to the development of renewable energy technologies. However, the effects of CCS are manifold and an adequate evaluation of this technology should take into account relevant aspects as comprehensively as possible. Since sustainability indicators are not the only ones stakeholders are interested in, attention also has to be paid to further indicators. By means of a multi-criteria analysis considering different scenarios, we investigate the consequences of the application of CCS in Germany that may serve as an alternative to an extension in the use of renewable energies. In doing so, we employ a set of indicators that also include factors distinct from sustainably indicators. The results show that there is a broad range of factors causing the future of CCS in the German power sector to look gloomy.

Keywords

Carbon capture and storage; Multi-criteria analysis; Scenario assessment; Energy scenarios

Fig.3 Assumed capacity in Germany (2030).