如果情況屬實(shí)，這將對(duì)氣候變化產(chǎn)生巨大影響，因?yàn)闇p少石油燃燒將永久性地減少溫室氣體排放，從而為實(shí)現(xiàn)《巴黎氣候協(xié)定》的目標(biāo)鋪平道路。但比羅爾警告稱，當(dāng)前石油需求的減少只是暫時(shí)的，到2020年消費(fèi)量將降至每日9100萬桶左右，然后在2021年及以后反彈。

根據(jù)《巴黎氣候協(xié)定》設(shè)定的遠(yuǎn)大目標(biāo)——將氣溫升幅限制在1.5攝氏度以內(nèi)，將要求到2030年使全球排放量減少一半左右，并在本世紀(jì)中葉左右達(dá)到凈零排放。如果不進(jìn)行深層次的結(jié)構(gòu)性改革，預(yù)計(jì)當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇時(shí)，排放量將再次上升。

IEA認(rèn)為，全球石油需求將在未來10年繼續(xù)增長，直到2030年左右達(dá)到一個(gè)平穩(wěn)水平。該機(jī)構(gòu)此前曾表示，到2030年，全球石油消費(fèi)量可能達(dá)到約1.05億桶/天，到2040年達(dá)到約1.06億桶/天。

王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社

原文如下：

Global Oil Demand Hasn’t Yet Peaked, Energy Watchdog Predicts

Global oil consumption hasn’t peaked, the head of the International Energy Agency warned, throwing cold water on hopes the coronavirus will cap demand and reduce climate-changing emissions.

“In the absence of strong government policies, a sustained economic recovery and low oil prices are likely to take global oil demand back to where it was, and beyond,” Fatih Birol said in an interview.

If true, that would have huge implications for climate change as burning less oil would permanently reduce greenhouse emissions, easing the way to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement. But Birol warned governments that the coronavirus will only reduce oil demand briefly, with consumption dipping in 2020 to about 91 million barrels a day, before rebounding in 2021 and beyond.

The more ambitious target set under the Paris climate agreement -- limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius -- will require annual global emissions to be reduced by about half by 2030 and to hit net-zero around the middle of the century. Without deep structural changes, emissions are expected to rise again when economies recover.

The IEA, which advises the world’s richest countries on oil policy, is sticking to its view that global oil demand will continue to increase over the next decade or so, before reaching a plateau around 2030. In a report published in November 2019, the agency said global petroleum consumption was likely to reach about 105 million barrels a day by 2030 and about 106 million by 2040.